It gave me an idea : at VHard, it is uneasy to make money fast in the first Valley, but it is on a middle term through trade exports, if a lot of money is invested into productive activities.
So this is the idea : debt management. I will go as deep as below –4000 debens and live nearly permanently during a determined period with a highly negative balance without any anxiety or threat.
The period will last 5 to 6 years. Why ? Because it is the time needed for this strategy to work on a map without any fast income generating resources like gold, copper or wood.
Background : the Valley game starts in 1490 with a mission : excavating and enlightening a small tomb. I am an unknown local leader, so have to fulfil my mission in a decent period of time while enriching myself and Pharaoh. I consider my Kingdom Rating cannot be anything below 100.
DEBT and KINGDOM RATING
There is no reason to be afraid of debts as long as they do not make your Kingdom Rating (KR) drop to 0. Reminder : at 0, Pharaoh would attack you, only a lavish gift sent on time could save you. Or defeating Pharaoh, what is possible but only in some missions, especially when you have chariots or towers. In the first ‘Valley’, you do not have any army
For the first DEBT occurrence, the date registered is when you receive the gift from Pharaoh (1875 debens here), not from you drown afterwards below 0. If you are endebted rather early on the first year, say March, one year later plus or minus one month you are told that you are overindebted. At the end of the second year, you may be overindebted again. It means :
I start with a KR of 40, indebted at the end of the first year it drops to 36 ; being overindebted during the second year makes it drop to 21 ; still indebted at the end of the second year it drops to 15. Then it is not possible to get overindebted again or I would lose 30+ points.
First trick : if I set the mansion immediately, I can send 2 lavish gifts before the end of the second year, so get 20 KR points, so can stand a second over-indebtment status. In our case, the mansion costs only 225 debens, plus 400 in gifts. I will bet on this calculation here.
DEBT and TRADE
In this Valley, useless exports at an early stage are 2500 peas (the profit is not worth the investment), 1500 luxury (gems are imported), 1500 lamps (requiring pottery and oil as raw materials). I am not mentionning Enkomi which is a very expensive route for a beginning (1700 db).
You can export usefully 1500 paints, 1500 pottery, 2500 linen, 4000 bricks, 2500 beer. Flax and Henne are locally grown, but the harvest occurs on July, meaning that the products would not be available for trade before late October at the very best. Producing raw materials on the first year means that the selling of fashionned items would occur on the second year.
It also takes time for the people to come and to staff all industries, which are here quite costly in workforce : factories for beer, pottery, paint, brick, linen all require 12 workers each. It also takes time to extract the clay.
So the strategy is to settle first industries that generate profit fast, meanwhile I set progressively the ones to be productive on the second year, and use the third year to set up the real future city. Therefore there is no problem if I can go deep into debt as long as I ensure I will recover the money during the second year.
DEBT and POPULATION
At VHard, I can expect a population of 800-1000 at the end of the first year, what is not enough to staff all industries. At this time, the Gods already require a lot of worshipping. As Brugle often reminds novice players, a shrine is worth just less than a temple and is accordingly less effective in the Gods’ approval. However, in our case, we consider that a temple requires 8 staff and we need the staff. Several shrines will be needed on a long term to please the Gods. So the strategy is to bet on shrines mostly in the beginning to concentrate the workforce on productive industries. The shrines cannot be ignored as a major source of expense.
As the working age group of the population is badly needed, it is important to set efficient blocks to save on costly infrastructure : architects, policemen, fire workers, physicians and apothecaries. For example, in the beginning, the ferries will not be connected and not staffed as they are used only for immigrants to reach the western bank.
I am allowed the library and the senet, meaning I can reach the level of spacious manor, which will bring more money in taxes than the exports. But it is for much mater, I must only ensure that the future deliveries of beer and linen will be eased through setting the future manor blocks in a proper location.
I will not feed the people on the first year because it would be too costly and staff consumming for little immediate effect.
THE INDUSTRIAL BLOCK
Docks : at the beginning of this game, we can assess that there is one terrestrial route only for four maritime routes. Whatever happens then, the sea trade will remain the major one. On the western bank, there is room for one dock only. I want two docks as I will produce goods on a slow pace : a ship buying beer can be stuck for months at the dock as beer is delivered one by one to the storage yard (SY). A second dock will make the sea trade more fluid.
The docks and the industrial block will be set on the Eastern bank also to allow a quick sale of pottery by road.
Long term trade : I know nothing for now of the opening of new routes but some things are guaranteed : paints and linen will remain overproduced to be available for export throughout the game. The work on the monument and the settlement of mortuaries will simply require additional factories with time. I will concentrate on bricks, which have no other use but sale.
Beer will be a limiting factor before Bast fills the bazaars. Maybe I will be force to import it from Men-Nefer. For now, 6 beer factories ensure the rotation of the 2500 barley available for import. Pottery will first be a key item for sale in the two first years.
Lamps are not worth a big deal for sale and I will react to my stocks accordingly. For paints and lamps, the deal is the following : the camps will remain near the floodplain, so I have no need to set SYs close to the monuments.
It is not so clear to demonstrate how many ships come from every trading city, as it is for caravans, but it is obvious that Waset is sending in more ships than Itjtawy, so I can expect Waset to be able to purchase most of the 4000 possible bricks.
OVERALL PLAN
1.Fence the scorpios with small statues. I have better to do than deal with these ones.
2.Set diconnected ferries. First settlers to go on the western bank and grow flax, secondarily henne. No peas.
3.Second immediate settlers to reach the docking area on the Eastern bank. Immediate import of barley.
4.While people are coming in, I set progressively beer factories, then clay pits, then potteries. I delay the first indebtment as much as I can while being fully operational.
5.In May, I connect the ferries to receive the flax and henne. The Priority ranking of Food becomes 9.
6.In June, the population goes beyond 400 and the Gods start noticing. I set the first shrines. Settlement of the mansion and self delivered wage of 100, lavish gift in August.
7.I open the road to Itjtawy in late July for the selling of beer. If I open it later, its ship is sunk by the expansion of the floodplain.
8.I open the road to Pwenet in mid November to sell pottery.
9.In December, I check that my wage is at 0 : I will lose one KR point less.
Balance at the end of the first year should be around –4000 (-4000 or –1 makes no difference for Pharaoh).